Once Upon a [Wait] Time: Modeling Disney World Ride Wait Times with Machine Learning

Photo by Cody Board on Unsplash

Introduction

Table of Contents

  1. Data Sources
  2. Data Cleaning and Feature Engineering
  3. Exploratory Data Analysis
  4. Modeling and Feature Importance
  5. Ethical Considerations
  6. Conclusion
  7. More Information

Data Sources

  1. Astro Orbiter
  2. Big Thunder Mountain Railroad
  3. Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin
  4. Dumbo the Flying Elephant
  5. Haunted Mansion
  6. It’s a Small World
  7. Jungle Cruise
  8. Mad Tea Party
  9. Peter Pan’s Flight
  10. Pirates of the Caribbean
  11. Prince Charming Regal Carrousel
  12. Seven Dwarfs Mine Train
  13. Space Mountain
  14. Splash Mountain
  15. The Barnstormer
  16. The Magic Carpets of Aladdin
  17. The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh
  18. Tomorrowland Speedway
  19. Tomorrowland Transit Authority PeopleMover
  20. Walt Disney’s Carousel of Progress

Data Cleaning and Feature Engineering

Exploratory Data Analysis

rideData2018_waits['SACTMIN'].describe()
Descriptive Statistics for 2018 Actual Wait Times via Touring Plans
rideData2018_waits['SPOSTMIN'].describe()
Descriptive Statistics for 2018 Posted Wait Times via Touring Plans
  • If the ride is a considered thrilling
  • If the ride is considered slow
  • If the ride has small drops
  • If the ride has large drops
  • If the ride is dark
  • If the ride has spinning
  • If it’s a water ride
Difference in Posted Wait Times for Spinning Rides vs. Other Rides
Posted Wait Times by Ride via TouringPlans

Modeling and Feature Importance

  • Mean Absolute Error: the average of all absolute errors of the data collected
  • Mean Squared Error: the average of the square of the difference between actual and estimated values
  • Root Mean Squared Error: the square root of the mean squared error
  • R-squared: measure of how much the variation in the dependent variable (posted wait time) can be explained by the independent variables
n_estimators = [10, 50, 100]
max_depth = [10, 50, 100]
MAE: 40.45313127097203
MSE: 22577.2899065588
RMSE: 150.25741215180966
R-SQUARED: 0.7326651661948325
Top 30 Features that Contribute to our Final Model
  1. Magic Kingdom Extra Magic Hour Evening (Boolean)
  2. Ride Type — Slow (Boolean)
  3. Ride Type — Spinning (Boolean)
  4. Ride Type — Small Drops (Boolean)
  5. Total Opening Hours including Extra Magic Hours for Magic Kingdom (numeric)
  6. Percentage of Schools in Session Within Driving Distance to California Only (numeric)
  7. Park Area Adventureland (Boolean)
  8. Walt Disney World Max Temperature (numeric)
  9. Magic Kingdom Extra Magic Hour Morning Yesterday (Boolean)
  10. Total Opening Hours including Extra Magic Hour for Animal Kingdom (numeric)
  11. Historical High Temperature (numeric)
  12. Historical Low Temperature (numeric)
  13. Ticket Season Peak (Boolean)
  14. Ride Name is Seven Dwarfs Mine Train (Boolean)
  15. Total hourly capacity lost on that park day (due to attraction closures) (numeric)
  16. Magic Kingdom Extra Magic Hour Evening Tomorrow (Boolean)
  17. Magic Kingdom Extra Magic Hour Evening Yesterday (Boolean)
  18. Percentage of Schools in Session Within Central Florida Only (numeric)
  19. Epcot Extra Magic Hour Morning (Boolean)
  20. Park Area Frontierland (Boolean)
  21. Ride name is Walt Disney’s Carousel of Progress (Boolean)
  22. Yesterday’s Total Opening Hours including Extra Magic Hours for Magic Kingdom (numeric)
  23. Percentage of Schools in Session Within Driving Distance to Florida Only (numeric)
  24. Fast pass (Boolean)
  25. 1st Epcot Fireworks time (time)
  26. Ride Type Dark (Boolean)
  27. Magic Kingdom Event Disney Villain After Hours (Boolean)
  28. Yesterday’s Total Opening Hours including Extra Magic Hours for Animal Kingdom (numeric)
  29. Happy Hallowishes Fireworks at Magic Kingdom (Boolean)
  30. Holiday Wishes Fireworks at Magic Kingdom (Boolean)

Ethical Considerations

Conclusion

More Information

Related Data Science Work

GitHub Repository

Statement of Work

--

--

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store